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CAT
Caterpillar Inc.US· Industrials$390.00📅 Earnings in 24d
Signal
Hold
Est. 12-month return
+3.5%
Confidence
45%
Model ensemble · 6 algorithms voting
| Model | Style | Signal | Est. 12m | Conf. | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Multi-Factor | Factor investing (AQR) | Hold | -0.2% | 60% | Composite factor score 49/100 vs market average of 50. |
| Analyst Consensus | Sell-side research | Hold | +4.6% | 50% | Consensus target implies 8% upside (haircut for optimism). |
| Time-Series Momentum | Trend funds (Man AHL) | Buy | +7.4% | 64% | 12-month trend 22%, at 97% of 52w high. |
| Trend-Following (MA cross) | CTA / managed futures | Buy | +8.4% | 45% | Golden cross: price 15% vs 200-day average. |
| Mean Reversion (RSI/Bollinger) | Technical / contrarian | Hold | -1.5% | 40% | RSI 58, 0.3σ from mean — overbought, pullback risk. |
| Low-Volatility | Risk-premia (min-vol) | Hold | +0.8% | 40% | Annualized volatility 26% — calmer than average. |
Six independent models each vote with an expected return and confidence; the headline figure is their confidence-weighted blend (how quant funds combine uncorrelated signals). It is a modelled estimate, not a promise — markets are partly unpredictable, so treat a strong signal as a reason to research, never as a certainty.
Options flow · Options flow is a paid feed and is not configured. Set OPTIONS_FLOW_VENDOR (polygon | unusualwhales | tradier | cboe) and OPTIONS_FLOW_API_KEY, then run the options ingest.
Recent news
Headline sentiment:bullish(+0.67 · 3 headlines)Caterpillar Inc shares rally as momentum builds into earnings
Sample Newswire · 6/3/2026
Analysts upgrade CAT on strong growth outlook
Sample Newswire · 6/2/2026
Caterpillar Inc tops quarterly estimates, raises guidance
Sample Newswire · 6/1/2026
Sentiment is a transparent finance-word lexicon score on the headline text only — a soft signal, not a recommendation.
Quant grades
graded vs 18 US peers · letter = percentile rankOverall
C+49
Value
B57
Quality
D-38
Momentum
B-55
Growth
C46
Valuation
Trailing P/E16.00
Forward P/E15.00
Price / Book6.00
Price / Sales3.00
EV / EBITDA12.00
Dividend Yield1.8%
Quality & Growth
Return on Equity45.0%
Profit Margin16.0%
Debt / Equity180.00
Earnings Growth (yoy)6.0%
Revenue Growth (yoy)3.0%
Momentum
3-month return4.0%
6-month return10.0%
12-month return22.0%
Price vs 52w high97.0%
Analyst
Mean target$420.00
Implied upside7.7%
Consensusbuy
Dividend scorecard
Yield
1.8%C+
vs market dividend payers
Safety
C-
Based on D/E 180% · margin 16%. Growth/consistency need dividend history (not in this dataset).
Peer comparison
US market · top by composite| Stock | Price | P/E | Value | Quality | Moment. | Growth | Score | 12m est. | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | $180.00 | 55.0 | 11 | 77 | 75 | 97 | 60 | +8.4% | Buy |
| META | $620.00 | 24.0 | 47 | 61 | 67 | 62 | 58 | +6.6% | Buy |
| GOOGL | $200.00 | 26.0 | 47 | 58 | 61 | 58 | 55 | +5.2% | Buy |
| JPM | $280.00 | 14.0 | 59 | 53 | 56 | 47 | 55 | +4.0% | Hold |
| BAC | $46.00 | 12.0 | 62 | 49 | 53 | 46 | 54 | +3.9% | Hold |
| XOM | $115.00 | 14.0 | 64 | 47 | 51 | 41 | 52 | +2.7% | Hold |
| CVX | $160.00 | 14.0 | 65 | 47 | 49 | 42 | 52 | +2.6% | Hold |
| MSFT | $480.00 | 36.0 | 37 | 60 | 55 | 54 | 51 | +3.6% | Hold |
Factor scores rank this stock against others in the same market. A high score means it screens well on that dimension today — it is a starting point for research, not a signal to buy. Always confirm the fundamentals and understand the business before investing.